Alexander Robertson

In late December, I wrote a post regarding the emerging SARS-CoV-2 strain in the UK (B.1.1.7). At the time, we knew very little about B1.1.7 and the other emerging strains. Since the time of writing that article, new data has emerged characterizing the B.1.1.7 strain as well as the Brazil (P.1) and South Africa (B.1.351) variants. The consensus on the threat that these strains may impose has shifted from “it will likely be fine” to “this is very worrying”.

In particular, the P.1 and B.1.351 strains seem to be more infectious, and may have the potential to “escape” the vaccine. Scientists are currently studying these strains to find out if that is indeed true. In the meantime, it’s cause for some concern.

Additionally, one thing I did not note in the original post (note: left in its original form) is that there are concerns that the higher rate of infection of these new strains may cause hospitals to fill up faster, causing a larger burden on the hospital system, similar to what we saw during the early days of the pandemic. Luckily, our understanding of the virus has greatly improved since the beginning of 2020, and treatment options have shortened the average stay for patients who are brought to the hospital due to COVID-19. Will this be enough to keep the hospitals from filling up? It remains to be seen.

Initially, I felt that I should delete the original post and start a new one from scratch, incorporating the newly acquired information that we have regarding the emerging strains. However, I feel that it is important for public health officials to be open with the public about the ever changing nature of disease outbreaks. For example: at the beginning of the pandemic, the advice was to not wear a mask. After studies proved that mask wearing was the most effective way to curb transmission, they flipped their direction, without a serious discussion on why the advice was different. For many people, this has caused confusion and instilled a sense of skepticism towards public health guidance from the CDC.

Going forward, it’s important for those of us in public health to admit when we don’t know everything – but it is also important to assure that every recommendation we make is based on a body of science and is given with the intention of saving as many lives as possible. Diseases evolve, society changes, and while we can create models to predict what those changes may be, we can never fully guarantee the future.

Sometime soon, I will write a post regarding the emerging strains, their mutations and why they matter. Stay tuned for that.

Wear a mask, social distance when possible and try not to spread misinformation. We’re not out of this yet, but we’re getting closer every day.